Friday, August 19, 2016

Putin's Latest Chess Move

It is clear that Russian President Putin has no respect for America's Military presence in Iraq. Nor does he fear what Obama will do if he steps out of line, as he has done today.

His latest strategic moves in the Iraq/Syria war against I.S.I.S., and the American supported Syrian rebels (who are mostly Kurds) is to send missiles against the I.S.I.S. positions. I certainly don't mourn for the I.S.I.S. fighters, but since they are living in civilian areas, and using them as human shields in the event that they are bombed (so they can portray the bombers as heartless barbarians, who will bomb civilian populations), indiscriminant missile bombardment amounts to a significant escalation in their war effort. That Putin would do so now tells us two things: 1) He does not expect any serious objection to this escalation from the Obama Administration, and 2) he seems to be intent on escalating the war effort, now, before the election in America, in case Trump wins the election. Perhaps Putin wants to get the war with I.S.I.S. (and the other Syrian rebels) over with, quickly, so he can move on to more important things...like, perhaps the "Gog/Magog" Middle-East invasion, prophecied in Ezekiel, chapters 38, & 39!?? Perhaps he would prefer to get that "solidly" established before a possible Trump Administration could intervene.

Also, it is reported that the Assad regime simultaneously has bombed the American supported Kurd positions. This was probably the result of negotiations between Turkey's Erdogan, and Putin, when Erdogan travelled recently to Russia to meet with Putin. I don't believe that Assad would do anything without Putin's permission, and the Kurds have been terrorizing Turkey, at the same time as they fight the Syrians. So, isn't it coincidental that Assad should do so, shortly after Erdogan's visit? Perhaps this was intended to take the American attention away from Russia's Missile escalation.

But, the very fact that this escalation happened now, instead of after the election, shows that Putin thinks Obama will do nothing in retaliation for either escalation. And why should he expect any significant response from the Obama Administration, who are more concerned with restricting our own generals, than with worrying about things like Syrian use of "Cluster Bombs", and poison gas against their enemies, both of which are considered War Crime violations by the U.N.?

Remember, Russian strategy follows the pattern of a Chess game. One makes a move, and then waits to see what the opponent does to possibly counter his move before he decides on his next move. So far, Obama's most dangerous "weapon of choice" has been a strong diplomatic protest for any Russian escalation. If that's all he does now, you can expect further escalations in the future. I think Putin doesn't think a President Trump would allow these things, without unleashing his Generals, and Admirals to respond in some way that would make Putin think twice, before further escalations.

So, if I'm right, I think Putin wants to get the escalations established before the election, because he doesn't want to test Trump the way he feels he can get away with bad behavior now, with no retaliation from the Obama Administration. It seems that Putin doesn't think Hillary has much of a chance. And he may be right!

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