Sunday, January 19, 2020

In Spite Of Optimism, Chinese Trade War Is Not Over... It's Just Beginning!!!

I believe that President Trump's resolve to stop China's unfair trade behavior is genuine, but the Chinese government has demonstrated an intentional  resolve to make trade agreements in the past, which it has every intention of violating, because it believes we do not have the resolve to back up our threats to punish any violations to those agreements!!!   The sanctions that the President placed on China were painful enough to bring the Chinese to the negotiating table, but will they honor their agreement, when they have demonstrated in the past a willingness to violate the terms of past agreements???

The President must not only be wary of the Chinese history of violating their own agreements, but must maintain a  resolve to implement further sanctions, with even harsher penalties, immediately upon evidence of their violations of the agreement, that was just signed last week!!!   A one-sided treaty is of no value, and if we end sanctions, while China continues it's pernicious trade practices ( which they have done in the past) we will find ourselves in a one-sided deal that will only make it worse for our trade relations!

Part of the problem is with our own companies which deal with China, and don't wish to complain when they find that China steals their IP secrets, and hacks their private security systems to steal their trade secrets.  They fear that any complaints will be reflected in loss of stock value, when it is made public, or that the Chinese will retaliate by more intrusive hacking, so they just keep their complaints to themselves.  This enables the Chinese hackers to get away with their theft, without retribution, which, in turn, encourages more of the same in the future!!!

If  President Trump wants to stop this cycle of Chinese theft of trade secrets, he must resolve to quickly respond with punitive sanctions for any violations of the trade deal. which he can reasonably expect from the Chinese!!!

This will invariably weaken Chino-American relations, but the alternative is to have our economy raided by hostile Chinese interests, that will eventually cause our  economies to reverse our positions as the first, and second economies of the world!!!  When that happens, you can bet China will sanction our economy to death, and there will be no opportunity to work out a trade deal with them!!!

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